UAAP Finals- Preview

The 2011 UAAP Finals are but days away. With many pundits hinting at the biggest upset since the UE debacle of 2007, I am inclined to have a differing opinion. Here are some thoughts I've got regarding the last dance.

*FEU's Three Guard Attack is Deadly- Coach Bert Flores' lineup featuring Garcia, Romeo, and Tolomia reminds one of the NBA's Golden State Warriors' three guard lineup from the late 1980s. Back in the day, Mitch Richmond, Sarunas Marciulonis, and Tim Hardaway torched defenses with their blitzkrieg-style offense. FEU's adopted that modus operandi, and it has reaped dividends for them. Add to that fact FEU's steadying veteran presences in Aldrech Ramos and Garcia and what you have is a team that is not only an offensive juggernaut. What you have also is a team that plays under control, and paces itself outstandingly.

*Ateneo CAN Play Championship Defense- Note on the word CAN here.

In his postgame presser after defeating 4th seed UST in the 2011 Final Four, Coach Norman Black mentioned that the Eagles don't go into arenas thinking that they're invincible, and rightfully so. Their lone loss- a 62-46 drubbing versus Adamson, showed that pound for pound, the Eagles aren't the most talented bunch, relying more on teamwork and crisp ball movement to lead them to success as opposed to raw, one on one, talent. Furthermore, even if they do have 2-3 lockdown defenders in Long, Austria, and perhaps Tonino Gonzaga, Ateneo's calling card in Season 74 has been swarming, team D, a potent weapon which they've used towards netting 9 out of 13 victories by more than 10 points, and holding the likes of FEU, NU, and Adamson to 51 points or less (39 for NU and 49 for FEU).

There's no doubting the Eagles' defense. It's their offense that has been suspect as of late- their perimeter offense, that is.

When Greg Slaughter is doubled, he still tends to have a hard time passing out of traffic. In stretches this season, he has shown a proclivity to force shots, which has sometimes led to offensive fouls, or travelling violations. His shooters have shot blanks as of late, with the likes of Long and Monfort shooting only 19 and 15 percent respectively this year from 3 point land. While Kiefer Ravena has shot 50% from the floor this year, he has shown a tendency to get outmuscled by larger, more athletic, guards (e.g. Alex Nuyles, Chris Exciminiano).

In the UAAP, small chinks in teams' armor are all the opposition can need towards scoring a victory.

*RR Garcia and Aldrech Ramos are the keys to FEU's run.- As good as Russel Escoto and Michael Tolomia were in their game against the Falcons, the hopes and dreams of the Tams still lie in the hands of RR Garcia and Aldrech Ramos.

For the season, Garcia and Ramos have recorded averages of 16.2 and 11.4 points per game respectively. Beyond the numbers, its the way they rein in younger Tamaraws like Terence Romeo and Mike Tolomia that will spell the difference here. When Ateneo scores, they score in bunches- and mostly in transition. If the Eagles take an early lead and FEU begins to get frustrated, look for RR to calmly sink a three here, and Ramos to draw fouls on Slaughter and Justin Chua there. Furthermore, Ramos' outside shooting touch should help seduce Ateneo's Slaughter to step out of the shaded lane once in a while, freeing the paint for FEU's myriad cutters to do damage.

While not the most physically imposing physical specimen, Garcia has enough savvy screeners to help get him open, and, as many have learned, the guy only needs a morsel of daylight to torch opponents. Lately, the Eagles have looked a bit sluggish on the perimeter defensively, allowing the likes of Alex Nuyles, Jeric Fortuna, and Jeric Teng to get fairly open looks.

Like I said, one sliver of daylight, and the Tams take this by the neck.

*Norman Black will have to pull out a Doug Kramer, circa 2006.- Remember this, sports fans?





Norman may have to have one of these up his sleeve if he wants to bag his fourth straight UAAP crown.

Expect the games in this series to be close, and expect coaching to be of major league importance. This will be a chess match, and while it would seem that the more experienced Black, who has won championships in the UAAP, internationally, and in the PBA, would have the edge, don't count out the hands on Bert Flores, who last gave FEU a UAAP title.

The Eagles and Tamaraws' mentors both have a cool, calm, and collecting demeanor to them, and this would seem to be the perfect teabag to put into the hot water that is a high pressure, for-all-the-marbles situation.


*Defense wins championships. - He who plays better defense, shall win the big one.

Man for man, FEU is more athletic, and longer, than Ateneo. As a team, the Eagles play better press defense. For the year, the Eagles have held their nemeses to below 65 points per contest, while scoring over 73. The Tams have, on the other hand, held their opponents to a shade under 67 points per game. While Ateneo is dead last in bench offense, their bench gives them defensive firepower which is potent to say the least. This makes for an intriguing matchup against an FEU bench of Pogoy, Escoto, Cruz, Tolomia, and Bringas which averages 19.5 points, 16.7 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game on 36% shooting.

Look for the Eagles to want to keep the scoring in the mid levels, and for FEU to want to score right out of the park.

If Ateneo's defense clicks, look for them to kill the Tams in transition. If it is loose in any way, look for the Tams to swing the ball around a lot and try to nip the Eagles from the perimeter.


*THE SKINNY- A lot's been said about this series being a war of atrition- and it is. FEU is hungry to stop being UAAP's quintessential bridesmaid. The Ateneo Blue Eagles, on the other hand, are looking to make history by joining La Salle and UST as the only schools to engineer a four peat. FEU is younger, and is awash with slashers and shooters. Ateneo is littered with savvy vets and grind it out cagers who aren't concerned about the score- just the result. Look for Greg Slaughter to be fed time and again, and look for Norman Black to try and keep a leach on prized rookie Kiefer Ravena (so that he doesn't try and do too much 1 on 1). Nico Salva is also poised to have a big time series, but for my money, Ateneo's fortunes are hinged on how their shock troopers play. Can Kirk Long hit jumpers? Can Justin Chua provide steady shooting and boardwork while Slaughter catches his breath? Can Tonino Gonzaga and Bacon Austria score 4-6 points each while providing their usual solid defense? Will the likes of Juami Tiongson and JP Erram be able to contribute in spot minutes? Those are the pressing questions the boys in blue are set to face come Saturday.

For the Tamaraws, look for RR Garcia to be aggressive, but also, be the primary facilitator for the Morayta boys. Terence Romeo will be given free rein to operate, and I think Coach Bert Flores is willing to live and die with his sophomore sniper. Christian Sentju and Hippo Nondou may even get some court time in this one, considering the fact that Ateneo's got Slaughter manning the post, and as an added bonus, look for Bert Flores to possibly even field JR Cawaling for a few minutes. Suffice to say, FEU has a deep bench, and Ateneo may suffer because of it.

In the end, I see this series going to 3 games, and while the Tamaraws will pull off a gallant stand, look for the Eagles to suffocate FEU's shooters and stifle the former's big men enough to eek out their fourth championship victory- perhaps on a big final game from Salva, Ravena, and/or Slaughter. Old habits can tend to die hard- even the good ones. This tried and tested triumvirate should be enough to see the Eagles through. Kirk Long and Tonino Gonzaga should also be able to force RR Garcia into poor shooting nights, while Terence Romeo will play well, but will falter in the endgame. Aldrech Ramos will be solid, but not spectacular. Look for Emman Monfort to get his shooting back at a critical time also, and for Norman Black to run more screen and roll/motion plays compared to during previous games. FEU will most likely play a 2-3 zone, but Black will adjust by doing more backcuts and flex cuts to help mask Slaughter's passing deficiencies. Salva should break out of his shooting slump in this series too.

Ateneo in 3 in a close final tiff.

MC