Call me insane, but, I smell an upset in the offing.
This is not a knee jerk reaction to Adamson's recent drubbing of the Ateneo Blue Eagles. Basketball is a game of momentum, and of strategy, and at this point, I think the 13-1 Eagles have chinks in their armor that are masked by their usually consistent and suffocating defense.
Let's go through the matchups:
Ateneo (1) vs UST (4): With Melo Afuang and Karim Abdul on the shelf, I don't see UST standing much of a chance here. Jeric Fortuna and Jeric Teng need to have Kobe-esque games for the Tigers to keep in close. Coach Pido needs to try and clog lanes and force Ateneo into shooting jumpers. For Ateneo, I say, dump the ball to Greg Slaughter inside, but only if he manages to go low post on the Tigers. Any further out, and Slaughter's speed and ball handling follies are exposed. Kiefer Ravena must be able to slash and create enough attention off the dribble to be able to consistently deliver on drive and kick and drop passes to the likes of Slaughter and Nico Salva for pop shots. Look for Norman Black to field Bacon Austria and Kirk Long on Teng and Fortuna. UST's hustle guys- Camus, Pe, and Mariano will work to push the Eagles' Slaughter off his slots but I don't see them being able to contain him for 40 minutes. Best case scenario would see UST keeping one game close, but ultimately, losing in the endgame.
Prediction: Ateneo in 1
Adamson (2) vs FEU (3): This is the matchup to watch for this phase of the tournament. RR Garcia and Aldrech Ramos will be hungry to show that despite injuries to key players like Nondou and Cawaling, despite the criticism volleyed FEU's way regarding their endgame poise, and despite the fact that FEU can tend to start slow then rely on RR Garcia to carry them through adversity towards the conclusion of contests, the Tamaraws remain confident about their chances against an Adamson Falcons squad that has, at times, also been rather streaky.
Adamson is on a high right now, with a statement win over the Ateneo Blue Eagles. Alex Nuyles as cemented himself as one of the league's best, while shooters like Etrone, Brondial, and Cabrera have flanked him with utmost efficiency. Eric Camson has also emerged as a force on the glass, along with his dance partner, Lionel Manyara. The team with the best defense in the UAAP (statistically), ironically, also has, to me, the most explosive offense when its clicking. These guys live and die by the three, and while they've gone to the 3 ball a lot in Season 74, I believe that they have enough slashers and midrange threats to catapult them to the next level.
FEU will play hard, and possibly, even triumph in one game to keep things engaging. RR Garcia will show why he's a former MVP, perhaps scoring over 20 points in one game to help the Tamaraws set up a do-or-die matchup. I think that the Falcons' end to end dynamism, along with their sky high confidence, and overall advantage talentwise, will help them eek through the semis and earn their first finals berth since 1992.
Prediction: Adamson in 2.
Next Time: UAAP Season 74 Finals Preview
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